Radical reforms might not save Europe's fish stocks

There certainly aren't plenty more fish in Europe's sea. Its stocks have crashed, and imports now account for more than half the fish consumed in the European Union. Now, the EU hopes that radical reforms to its system of fishing quotas will restore fisheries by 2020. The plan is a big step forward, but experts are concerned that politicians could yet ignore scientific recommendations in implementing it.

The Common Fisheries Policy, set up in 1970, governs the European fishing industry, with annual fishing quotas for each EU member state. These are set by a gathering of ministers called the Council of the European Union.

"Almost everyone agrees it has been a complete failure," says Markus Knigge, a Belgium-based adviser to the Pew Charitable Trusts' European Marine Programme. Despite the quotas, overfishing has continued for decades, fish populations have dwindled and the industry is dependent on subsidies. "We are importing 60 per cent of our fish consumption in the EU," says Knigge.

The problem is that the Council tends to ignore scientific evidence on the state of the fisheries and then sets quotas too generously, says Callum Roberts of the University of York, UK. He has shown that, between 1987 and 2011, European fishing quotas were on average a third higher than scientific recommendations (Marine Pollution Bulletin, doi.org/bwrrgc).

The proposed reforms aim to make European fishing sustainable by 2015, and to restore stocks by 2020. That will require limiting catches to sustainable levels, allowing the fish to maintain their populations. "That is a complete paradigm shift," says Knigge.

Not watertight

But Roberts says the system will not be watertight. The maximum sustainable yields will not be written into law, so the Council will still be able to set quotas too high. "There is no commitment on ministers to binding targets."

Instead the annual quotas will be replaced by longer-term plans spanning several years, making it harder for ministers to push quotas up. "That's good if you stick to the plan," says Roberts. But at December's meeting, it emerged that North Sea cod was not recovering as planned. That should have meant a 20 per cent cut in the quota ? but it never happened. "Instead the ministers abandoned the recovery plan ."

Restoring fish stocks is in everyone's interest. Falling yields have made fishing unprofitable: in 2010 Roberts found that the commercial productivity of UK fisheries fell 94 per cent between 1889 and 2007 (Nature Communications, doi.org/dt8nts).

Last year the New Economics Foundation, a think tank based in London, claimed that paying fishermen not to do any fishing for 10 years would pay for itself in higher yields within five years once fishing had resumed.

It's not just about fish as a food source. Overfishing damages marine ecosystems that are beneficial to humanity, says Roberts. The sea is losing its ability to process human waste, and it may also struggle to take up carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas.

Overfishing also makes the ocean more prone to toxic algal blooms, jellyfish blooms and dead zones.

"The functionality of the marine ecosystem is at stake," Roberts says. "That in turn will impact on human welfare."

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